| COMPREHENSIVE INTEGRATED FINANCIAL FORECASTING SYSTEM | Intermediate Calculation Section | ||||||||||||||
| FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS PROGRAM | -------------------------------- | ||||||||||||||
| FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECASTING SYSTEM | PP & E Depreciation | 18542 | 21542 | 24876 | 28542 | 32459 | |||||||||
| Oth Assets Depreciation | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | ||||||||||
| CALCULATED FORECAST DATA: | FORECAST VARIABLES: | ||||||||||||||
| Company Name: | josb | Company Name: | josb | ||||||||||||
| YR(Most Recent,Last Col) | Jan07 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | YR(Most Recent,Last Col) | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2012 | ||
| Cash and Mkt. Securities | 43080 | 69043 | 102258 | 144009 | 190098 | 243061 | Accts Rec Writeoff | 243061 | |||||||
| Accts/Notes Receivable | 5193 | 8050 | 8855 | 9829 | 10763 | 11624 | Sales/Ending Accts Rec. | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 11624 | ||
| Inventories (EOP) | 183471 | 204728 | 227012 | 250643 | 276656 | 301958 | COGS/Ending Inventories | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 301958 | ||
| Other Current Assets | 18560 | 21060 | 23560 | 26060 | 28560 | 31060 | Inc(Decr)Oth Curr Assets | 2500 | 2500 | 2500 | 2500 | 2500 | 31060 | ||
| CURRENT ASSETS | 250304 | 302881 | 361685 | 430541 | 506077 | 587703 | CURRENT ASSETS | N.E. | 587703 | ||||||
| Investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Deprec. Base Incr(Decr) | 0 | |||||||
| Property,Plant,& Equip. | 203044 | 236044 | 272044 | 312044 | 356044 | 403044 | Gdwill in new Cap Assets | 403044 | |||||||
| less: Accum.Depreciation | 85491 | 104033 | 125576 | 150451 | 178994 | 211453 | New PP&E Aver Depr Life | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 211453 | ||
| Other Assets | 535 | 518 | 502 | 485 | 468 | 452 | Oth Assets Ave Depr Life | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 452 | ||
| TOTAL ASSETS | 368392 | 435410 | 508655 | 592619 | 683595 | 779746 | OA Amor. Base Incr(Decr) | 779746 | |||||||
| Acts. & Notes Pay.-Trade | 41683 | 45518 | 50070 | 55193 | 60506 | 65574 | Op Exp/Ending A & N Pay. | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 65574 | ||
| Notes Payable--Non-Trade | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Aver Outst Notes Payable | 15000 | 17500 | 20000 | 22500 | 25000 | 0 | ||
| Current Part LT Debt | 0 | 412 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current Part LT Debt | 412 | 0 | ||||||
| Other Current Liab. | 72059 | 79559 | 87059 | 94559 | 102059 | 109559 | Inc(Decr)Oth Curr. Liab. | 7500 | 7500 | 7500 | 7500 | 7500 | 109559 | ||
| CURRENT LIABILITIES | 113742 | 125489 | 137129 | 149752 | 162565 | 175133 | Conv. Debt for FD EPS | 175133 | |||||||
| Long Term Debt | 412 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Conv. Debt Int Rate for FD EPS | 0 | |||||||
| Deferred Tax (NCL) | 2595 | 2595 | 2595 | 2595 | 2595 | 2595 | Statutory Tax Rate | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 2595 | ||
| Other Non-Current Liab. | 43409 | 47409 | 51409 | 55409 | 59409 | 63409 | Other Non-Current Liab. | 4000 | 4000 | 4000 | 4000 | 4000 | 63409 | ||
| Minority Int. in Subs. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Minority Int. Distribut. | 0 | |||||||
| TOTAL LIABILITIES | 160158 | 175493 | 191133 | 207756 | 224569 | 241137 | TOTAL LIABILITIES | N.E. | 241137 | ||||||
| Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Preferred Stock Issued | 0 | |||||||
| Common Stock | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | Common Stock | N.E. | 180 | ||||||
| Additional Paid-in Cap. | 78101 | 81601 | 85601 | 90101 | 95101 | 100601 | Additional Paid-in Cap. | N.E. | 100601 | ||||||
| Retained Earnings | 129953 | 178136 | 231741 | 294582 | 363745 | 437828 | Equity Earnings | 437828 | |||||||
| Treasury Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Treasury Stock Purchased | 0 | |||||||
| SHAREHOLDER'S EQUITY | 208234 | 259917 | 317522 | 384863 | 459026 | 538609 | SHAREHOLDER'S EQUITY | N.E. | 538609 | ||||||
| TOTAL EQUITIES | 368392 | 435410 | 508655 | 592619 | 683595 | 779746 | TOTAL EQUITIES | N.E. | 779746 | ||||||
| Sales | 546385 | 603755 | 664131 | 737185 | 807218 | 871795 | Sales Growth Rate | 10.5% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 871795 | ||
| Other Revenue | -559 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Other Revenue Gr. Rate | -100.0% | 0 | ||||||
| Cost of Goods Sold | 207947 | 225201 | 249713 | 275707 | 304321 | 332154 | Cost of Goods Sold Pct. | 38.1% | 37.3% | 37.6% | 37.4% | 37.7% | 38.1% | 332154 | |
| R&D/Other Expense Line 1 | 212331 | 242710 | 266317 | 294137 | 321273 | 346103 | Sell. & Mktg. Exp. Pct. | 38.9% | 40.2% | 40.1% | 39.9% | 39.8% | 39.7% | 346103 | |
| SG&A/Other Exp. Line 2 | 52453 | 55545 | 59772 | 64872 | 70228 | 75846 | Gen. & Admin. Exp. Pct. | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 75846 | |
| EBIT | 73095 | 80299 | 88329 | 102469 | 111396 | 117692 | Aver. Int. Income Rate | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 117692 | ||
| Interest Expense | 938 | -1367 | -2526 | -4041 | -5830 | -7871 | Aver. LT Debt Int. Rate | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | -7871 | ||
| Income Tax Expense | 28935 | 33483 | 37251 | 43669 | 48063 | 51481 | Effective Tax Rate | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 51481 | ||
| Minor. Int. in Earnings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Minor. Int. in Earnings | 0 | |||||||
| Income from Contin. Ops | 43222 | 48183 | 53605 | 62841 | 69163 | 74082 | Income from Contin. Ops | N.E. | 74082 | ||||||
| Income from Discont. Ops | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Income from Discont. Ops | 0 | |||||||
| Extra. Gains (Losses) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Extra. Gains (Losses) | 0 | |||||||
| Changes in Acct. Princ. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Changes in Acct. Princ. | 0 | |||||||
| Preferred Stock Dividend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Preferred Stock Dividend | 0 | |||||||
| NI AVAIL. TO COM. | 43222 | 48183 | 53605 | 62841 | 69163 | 74082 | NI AVAIL. TO COM. | N.E. | 74082 | ||||||
| Net Income, Cont Ops | 43222 | 48183 | 53605 | 62841 | 69163 | 74082 | PP&E Adjustment | 74082 | |||||||
| Depreciation and Amort. | 15809 | 18559 | 21559 | 24892 | 28559 | 32476 | PP&E Depreciation Adjust | 32476 | |||||||
| Other Addbacks | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (Gain)Loss fr Asset Sale | 0 | |||||||
| Other Subtractions | 2603 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Other Subtractions | 0 | |||||||
| WC Provided by Ops | 56462 | 66742 | 75164 | 87733 | 97722 | 106558 | WC Provided by Ops | N.E. | 106558 | ||||||
| (Inc)Decr in Receivables | 1262 | -2857 | -805 | -974 | -934 | -861 | (Inc)Decr in Receivables | N.E. | -861 | ||||||
| (Inc)Decr in Inventories | -6829 | -21257 | -22284 | -23631 | -26013 | -25303 | (Inc)Decr in Inventories | N.E. | -25303 | ||||||
| (Inc)Decr in Other CA | -5677 | -2500 | -2500 | -2500 | -2500 | -2500 | (Inc)Decr in Other CA | N.E. | -2500 | ||||||
| Inc(Decr) A&N Pay.-Trade | -995 | 3835 | 4552 | 5123 | 5314 | 5068 | Inc(Decr) A&N Pay.-Trade | N.E. | 5068 | ||||||
| Inc(Decr) in Other CL | 16688 | 7500 | 7500 | 7500 | 7500 | 7500 | Inc(Decr) in Other CL | N.E. | 7500 | ||||||
| Cash from Cont. Ops. | 60911 | 51463 | 61627 | 73251 | 81089 | 90462 | Cash from Cont. Ops. | N.E. | 90462 | ||||||
| Cash from Discont. Ops. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cash from Discont. Ops. | N.E. | 0 | ||||||
| Cash fr. Extr. Gain/Loss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cash fr. Extr. Gain/Loss | N.E. | 0 | ||||||
| Increase N.Pay-NonTrade | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Increase N.Pay-NonTrade | 0 | |||||||
| Increase Curr. LT Debt | 0 | 412 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Increase Curr. LT Debt | N.E. | 0 | ||||||
| Long-Term Debt Issued | 90535 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Long-Term Debt Issued | 0 | |||||||
| Capital Stock Issued | 7404 | 3500 | 4000 | 4500 | 5000 | 5500 | Cap. Stock Iss.(Inc Pfd) | 3500 | 4000 | 4500 | 5000 | 5500 | 5500 | ||
| Capital Assets Sold | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Asset Sales less W.C. | 0 | |||||||
| Investments Sold | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Investments Sold | 0 | |||||||
| Other Sources | 3947 | 4000 | 4000 | 4000 | 4000 | 4000 | Other Assets Adjustment | 4000 | |||||||
| CASH, NON-OPS SOURCES | 101886 | 7912 | 8000 | 8500 | 9000 | 9500 | CASH, NON-OPS SOURCES | N.E. | 9500 | ||||||
| CASH, ALL SOURCES | 162797 | 59375 | 69627 | 81751 | 90089 | 99962 | CASH, ALL SOURCES | N.E. | 99962 | ||||||
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Common Dividend Per Share | 0 | |||||||
| Decrease N.Pay-NonTrade | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Decrease N.Pay-NonTrade | 0 | |||||||
| Decrease Curr. LT Debt | 0 | 0 | 412 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Asset Purchases less W.C. | 0 | |||||||
| Long-Term Debt Redeemed | 95920 | 412 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Long-Term Debt Redeemed | 0 | |||||||
| Capital Assets Acquired | 31141 | 33000 | 36000 | 40000 | 44000 | 47000 | PP&E Purchased | 33000 | 36000 | 40000 | 44000 | 47000 | 47000 | ||
| Increase In Investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Increase In Investments | 0 | |||||||
| Other Uses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Increase in Other Assets | 0 | |||||||
| TOTAL CASH USES | 127061 | 33412 | 36412 | 40000 | 44000 | 47000 | TOTAL CASH USES | N.E. | 47000 | ||||||
| Inc.(Decr.) in Cash etc. | 35736 | 25963 | 33215 | 41751 | 46089 | 52962 | Inc.(Decr.) in Cash etc. | 25963 | 33215 | 41751 | 46089 | 52962 | 52962 | ||
| Wtd Aver Com Shrs Outs | 18342 | 18442 | 18692 | 18942 | 19192 | 19442 | Common Shrs Issued(Ret) | 100 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 19442 | ||
| EPS Cont Operations | 2.36 | 2.61 | 2.87 | 3.32 | 3.60 | 3.81 | Cash Change (for line 99) | 25963 | 33215 | 41751 | 46089 | 52962 | |||
| FINANCIAL DATA CHECKS | |||||||||||||||
| Assets - Equities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Rev. - Exp. - NI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| WC from OPS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Cash Changes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| 3.1 SHORT TERM LIQUIDITY RATIOS | |||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |||||||||||
| Current | 2.41 | 2.64 | 2.88 | 3.11 | 3.36 | ||||||||||
| Quick (Acid Test) | 0.61 | 0.81 | 1.03 | 1.24 | 1.45 | ||||||||||
| Days Sales In Receivables | 4.00 | 4.65 | 4.63 | 4.66 | 4.69 | ||||||||||
| Days Inventory Held | 314.59 | 315.53 | 316.18 | 316.22 | 317.92 | ||||||||||
| Days Payables in Ops Exp | 30.40 | 30.30 | 30.27 | 30.35 | 30.51 | ||||||||||
| 3.2 CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND LT SOLVENCY RATIOS | |||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |||||||||||
| LT Debt/Total Assets | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||||
| LT Debt/Tangible Assets | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||||
| Total Debt/Total Assets | 40.3% | 37.6% | 35.1% | 32.9% | 30.9% | ||||||||||
| Total Debt/Tangible Assets | 40.4% | 37.6% | 35.1% | 32.9% | 30.9% | ||||||||||
| LT Debt/Owner's Equity | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||||
| LT Debt/Tang. Net Worth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||||
| Times Interest Earned | -58.75 | -34.96 | -25.36 | -19.11 | -14.95 | ||||||||||
| Ret. Earn./Total Assets | 40.9% | 45.6% | 49.7% | 53.2% | 56.2% | ||||||||||
| 3.3 RETURN-ON-INVESTMENT RATIOS | |||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |||||||||||
| Return On Total Assets | 11.8% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | ||||||||||
| Return On Common Equity | 20.6% | 18.6% | 17.9% | 16.4% | 14.9% | ||||||||||
| Book Value per share | $14.09 | $16.99 | $20.32 | $23.92 | $27.70 | ||||||||||
| Tang. Bk Value per share | $14.07 | $16.96 | $20.29 | $23.89 | $27.68 | ||||||||||
| Market Value/Book Value | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | ||||||||||
| Mkt Val/Tang Book Value | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | ||||||||||
| Market Value/Sales | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -0.7 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 4.7 | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value/Sales | -0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | ||||||||||
| 3.4 OPERATING PERFORMANCE RATIOS | |||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |||||||||||
| Gross Margin/Sales | 62.7% | 62.4% | 62.6% | 62.3% | 61.9% | ||||||||||
| EBIT/Sales | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 13.5% | ||||||||||
| Oper. Prof. net of tax/Sales | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | ||||||||||
| Net Income/Sales | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | ||||||||||
| 3.5 ASSET UTILIZATION RATIOS | |||||||||||||||
| Jan07 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||||||||
| Sales/Aver. Accts Rec. | 91.2 | 78.6 | 78.9 | 78.4 | 77.9 | ||||||||||
| Sales/Ending Accts Rec. | 105.2 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | |||||||||
| COGS/Average Inventory | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | ||||||||||
| COGS/Ending Inventory | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |||||||||
| Sales/Aver. Wrkg Capital | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | ||||||||||
| Sales/Aver. Fixed Assets | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | ||||||||||
| Sales/Aver. Tot. Assets | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | ||||||||||
| 3.6 CASH FLOW RATIOS | |||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |||||||||||
| Oper Cash Flow/Curr Liab | 55.8% | 57.2% | 61.2% | 62.6% | 63.1% | ||||||||||
| Oper Cash Flow/Tot Liab | 39.8% | 41.0% | 44.0% | 45.2% | 45.8% | ||||||||||
| Cash Flow per share | $3.62 | $4.02 | $4.63 | $5.09 | $5.48 | ||||||||||
| Price to Cash Flow | 0.0 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 8.9 | ||||||||||
| EBITDA per share | $5.36 | $5.88 | $6.72 | $7.29 | $7.72 | ||||||||||
| Price to EBITDA | 0.0 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.3 | ||||||||||
| Cash per share | $3.74 | $5.47 | $7.60 | $9.91 | $12.50 | ||||||||||
| Wrking Capital per share | $9.62 | $12.01 | $14.82 | $17.90 | $21.22 | ||||||||||
| 4.1 INCOME STATEMENT ITEMS AS % OF SALES | |||||||||||||||
| Jan07 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||||||||
| Sales | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | |||||||||
| Cost of Goods Sold | 38.1% | 37.3% | 37.6% | 37.4% | 37.7% | 38.1% | |||||||||
| GROSS MARGIN | 61.9% | 62.7% | 62.4% | 62.6% | 62.3% | 61.9% | |||||||||
| Other Revenue | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||||
| R&D/Other Expense Line 1 | 38.9% | 40.2% | 40.1% | 39.9% | 39.8% | 39.7% | |||||||||
| SG&A/Other Exp. Line 2 | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | |||||||||
| OPERATING MARGIN | 13.4% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 13.5% | |||||||||
| EBIT | 13.4% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 13.5% | |||||||||
| Interest Expense | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.9% | |||||||||
| Effective Tax Rate | 40.1% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | |||||||||
| Minor. Int. in Earnings | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||||
| INCOME--CONTIN. OPS | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | |||||||||
| (continued on following screen) | |||||||||||||||
| 4.1 INCOME STATEMENT ITEMS AS % OF SALES (A321, Screen 2 of 2) | |||||||||||||||
| Jan07 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||||||||
| Income From Discont. Ops | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||||
| Extra. Gains & Losses | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||||
| Changes in Acct. Princ. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||||
| NET INCOME | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | |||||||||
| Preferred Stock Dividend | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||||
| NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO | |||||||||||||||
| COMMON SHAREHOLDERS | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | |||||||||
| EPS from Cont Operations | 2.36 | 2.61 | 2.87 | 3.32 | 3.60 | 3.81 | |||||||||
| Total Earnings per share | 2.36 | 2.61 | 2.87 | 3.32 | 3.60 | 3.81 | |||||||||
| Dividends per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||
| PROJECTED RETURN CALCULATIONS | |||||||||||||||
| ----------------------------- | |||||||||||||||
| Company PE / S & P PE | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.75 | |||||||||||
| Projected Company PE | 0.0 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 12.8 | ||||||||||
| Projected Price | 0.00 | 39.00 | 45.12 | 49.01 | 48.58 | ||||||||||
| Cumulative Dividends | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| Projected Return | |||||||||||||||